Massive Minute Swings Tonight 11/28/25

Overview

• Several key tags (Questionable, Doubtful, Probable) are generating double digit minute swings, especially on CLE, IND, PHI, and PHO.
• Rotation volatility is concentrated in a few backcourts and wing groups, creating clear separation between ceiling gainers and minute losers.
• This slate sets up for strong late news leverage, with multiple spots where one tag flipping can unlock fringe players for +10.0 min or more.

Daily Pivots

Key Pivots

Alpha Pivot

Max Strus projects for a massive +17.9 min if Jarrett Allen sits or is limited, clearly the largest single gain on the slate. That level of floor time turns Strus from a fringe piece into a core-level DFS option with strong raw minute-based ceiling.

The same Jarrett Allen scenario also pushes Jaylon Tyson to +17.7 min and Craig Porter Jr. to +13.2 min, consolidating usage and opportunity in the CLE perimeter group. In any build that assumes Allen is out, stacking Max Strus with one of those secondary gainers is a high leverage way to capture the full impact of the rotation shift.

Secondary Pivots

• Andrew Nembhard Q - IND
  
  His tag unlocks huge boosts for Jarace Walker (+16.4 min), Quenton Jackson (+15.3 min), and RayJ Dennis (+13.5 min), with smaller bumps to Johnny Furphy (+7.0 min) and Ben Sheppard (+6.3 min). In tournaments, building two paths - one with Nembhard in and one with 1 to 2 of these fringe values - is a sharp way to leverage late news.

• Paul George Q - PHI
  
  If he sits, Jabari Walker jumps +10.6 min while Dominick Barlow (+7.7 min), Kyle Lowry (+7.2 min), Eric Gordon (+6.2 min), and Adem Bona (+5.3 min) all benefit. Jared McCain is the clear loser at -11.1 min, making him an avoid in builds that lean into George being out.

• Isaiah Livers Q and Grayson Allen D - PHO
  
  Livers being out spikes Nick Richards to +11.9 min and Nigel Hayes-Davis to +6.1 min, while cutting Royce O'Neale (-7.0 min), Grayson Allen (-7.7 min), Jordan Goodwin (-9.5 min), and Collin Gillespie (-13.0 min). With Grayson Allen already Doubtful and Jordan Goodwin getting a separate +6.9 min bump from Allen's tag, this backcourt is extremely sensitive to which of these wings are active.

• Marcus Smart D - LAL
  
  His absence funnels +12.5 min to Jake LaRavia while hammering Nick Smith Jr. for -13.3 min. LaRavia becomes a strong mid-range tournament play in Smart-out builds, while Smith is a clear fade in those same constructions.

Value Targets

• Jarace Walker / Quenton Jackson - IND
  
  Both gain at least +15.3 min if Andrew Nembhard sits, making them attractive salary savers that fit chalky stars-and-scrubs builds. In large-field GPPs, rotating them as low-owned pivots off more obvious value is a clean leverage angle.

• Nick Richards - PHO
  
  Richards picks up +11.9 min in Isaiah Livers-out scenarios, with several other PHO wings losing time. He profiles as stronger in balanced or contrarian builds, where his minutes bump is under-owned relative to higher profile value.

• Keon Ellis and Jamir Watkins - SAC/WAS
  
  Keon Ellis gains +10.1 min if Dennis Schroder is out, and Jamir Watkins jumps +11.0 min with Kyshawn George Questionable. Both work well as last-piece salary savers in tournament builds that already lean into their respective injury outcomes.

Deep Rotation Notes

CHI - Volatile wing and big minutes

• Julian Phillips swings from -6.2 min with Coby White to sizeable positives with Isaac Okoro (+6.3 min), Nikola Vucevic (+8.2 min), and Patrick Williams (+9.4 min), making him highly sensitive to multiple tags.
  
• Matas Buzelis loses time in both Isaac Okoro (-5.4 min) and Kevin Huerter (-7.5 min) absence scenarios, while Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu benefit (+6.0 min and +5.0 min) from Huerter sitting.

CLE - Non Strus beneficiaries and losers

• Beyond Max Strus, Jaylon Tyson has extreme volatility, ranging from -7.0 min with Craig Porter Jr. out to +17.7 min if Jarrett Allen misses, and smaller gains with Dean Wade out (+5.6 min).
  
• Tyrese Proctor and Nae'Qwan Tomlin are true swing pieces, each having both large positive and negative deltas depending on which teammate is out, making them more suitable for game stacks than one-off plays.

DAL - Frontcourt depth

• Anthony Davis being out or limited adds +8.9 min to Moussa Cisse and +6.9 min to Miles Kelly, with Dereck Lively II (+5.6 min) and Max Christie (+5.5 min) also gaining.
  
• These boosts are spread enough that no single DAL value reaches the CLE or IND level of priority, but they are usable fillers in builds that project an Anthony Davis absence.

DET - Guard reshuffle

• Jaden Ivey's tag mainly boosts Chaz Lanier by +9.5 min while cutting Wendell Moore Jr. by -6.8 min.
  
• Lanier is a thin but viable punt in Ivey-out builds, while Moore should be avoided in those same lineups.

MIL - Secondary guard value

• Giannis Antetokounmpo Questionable status pushes solid minutes to Gary Harris (+8.3 min), Ryan Rollins (+8.1 min), and Andre Jackson Jr. (+7.8 min).
  
• None project for massive ceilings without rates data, but they are fine correlation plays in game environments where you already assume Giannis sits.

PHI - Non headliner pieces

• Adem Bona's own Probable tag gives Johni Broome a modest +6.1 min bump, while Paul George being out further lifts Bona by +5.3 min.
  
• Eric Gordon and Kyle Lowry each gain meaningful minutes (+6.2 min and +7.2 min) in George-out scenarios and are viable mid-tier tournament fillers.

PHO - Guard and wing losers

• If Isaiah Livers is out, Royce O'Neale (-7.0 min), Grayson Allen (-7.7 min), Jordan Goodwin (-9.5 min), and Collin Gillespie (-13.0 min) all get squeezed.
  
• With Grayson Allen already Doubtful but also a minute loser in Livers-out scenarios, this backcourt has more downside than upside for several names, making them fades outside of strict game stacks.

SAC - Guard depth beyond Ellis

• Dennis Schroder's absence hurts Maxime Raynaud (-5.5 min) and Nique Clifford (-7.2 min), consolidating opportunity into Keon Ellis.
  
• Raynaud and Clifford are not appealing without an unexpected role spike, and are best avoided on most builds.

Roster Construction

• In lineups that assume Jarrett Allen is out, prioritize Max Strus at +17.9 min and pair him with one of Jaylon Tyson or Craig Porter Jr. to fully capture the CLE perimeter minutes shift.
  
• For late-swap flexibility, build at least one path where Andrew Nembhard sits, allocating 1 to 2 roster spots to Jarace Walker, Quenton Jackson, or RayJ Dennis, and a second path with no IND fringe value if he plays.
  
• Limit exposure to players with severe negative deltas, such as Jared McCain (-11.1 min), Collin Gillespie (-13.0 min), Nick Smith Jr. (-13.3 min), and others at -7.0 min or worse, especially in single entry and three max formats.