NBA DFS Injury Pivots (01/04/26)

Overview

• Rotation volatility is the story tonight, with several teams showing double digit minute swings tied to Q tags.
• DEN and CLE carry the biggest ceiling outcomes for value because multiple questionable players funnel minutes to the same replacements.
• MEM and MIA have meaningful branching paths where one decision can flip multiple secondary pieces up or down.

Daily Pivots

Key Pivots

Alpha Pivot

Spencer Jones is the top pure minutes spike on the slate at +20.0 min if Christian Braun Q sits. That is the cleanest signal in the data, and it becomes even more slate defining because Aaron Gordon Q also funnels +18.6 min to Spencer Jones in a separate branch.

In practice, this is the type of replacement that can flip roster construction: if DEN value opens, you can pay up more comfortably and still keep a real path to a tournament ceiling through raw minutes.

Secondary Pivots

• CLE has two massive levers: Jarrett Allen Q pushes Max Strus to +17.9 min and Jaylon Tyson to +15.7 min, while Sam Merrill Q separately boosts Jaylon Tyson +16.8 min and Craig Porter Jr. +10.0 min.
• DaRon Holmes shows a +19.5 min path from both Aaron Gordon Q and Christian Braun Q. If DEN is missing either, Holmes profiles as one of the strongest minutes-per-dollar candidates by role alone.
• MEM condenses quickly if Ja Morant Q sits: Gregory Jackson II jumps +14.2 min and Olivier-Maxence Prosper +14.8 min, while Christian Koloko takes the big hit at -14.1 min.
• MIA’s biggest toggle is Tyler Herro Q: Jaime Jaquez Jr. gets +15.9 min and Kasparas Jakucionis +14.7 min in that branch, but Jaquez also has downside risk (-7.6 min) if Nikola Jovic Q sits.

Value Targets

• Spencer Jones (+20.0 min) and DaRon Holmes (+19.5 min) are the headline salary savers if DEN news breaks that way, and they fit both cash builds (minutes driven floor) and GPP builds (roster flexibility for stars).
• Jaylon Tyson is a premium minutes value in any CLE sit scenario, showing +16.8 min (Sam Merrill Q) and +15.7 min (Jarrett Allen Q). That kind of overlap tends to play well as chalk if both tags linger.
• Gregory Jackson II (+14.2 min with Ja Morant Q, plus +14.1 min with Olivier-Maxence Prosper Q and +11.4 min with Santi Aldama Q) is a strong leverage piece when MEM news clusters and the field spreads exposure across too many mid-tier options.

Deep Rotation Notes

DEN - Multi-branch value, plus a trap

• Peyton Watson gains in both key branches: +13.2 min (Aaron Gordon Q) and +14.3 min (Christian Braun Q).
• Julian Strawther is fragile: he can rise +7.5 min (Aaron Gordon Q) but also gets hit -7.5 min (Christian Braun Q) and -5.6 min (Jamal Murray Probable branch).

CLE - Minutes concentrate fast

• Tyrese Proctor gets +8.4 min (Dean Wade Q) and +5.4 min (Jarrett Allen Q), making him a secondary value path if multiple sits stack.
• Nae'Qwan Tomlin (+6.2 min Allen Q, +11.8 min Merrill Q) and Thomas Bryant (+5.1 min Allen Q, +5.2 min Merrill Q) are deeper rotation fillers that become more relevant in multi-out builds.

MEM - Clear winners and clear losers

• Scotty Pippen Jr. benefits in multiple branches: +7.4 min (Ja Morant Q) and +6.5 min (Santi Aldama Q).
• Downgrades to track: Christian Koloko (-14.1 min) and Jock Landale (-6.0 min) in the Ja Morant Q branch, plus Cam Spencer (-7.4 min) if Olivier-Maxence Prosper Q sits.

MIA - Conflicting signals

• Kasparas Jakucionis has multiple boosts: +14.7 min (Tyler Herro Q), +9.4 min (Nikola Jovic Q), +8.8 min (Bam Adebayo Probable), and +5.4 min (Pelle Larsson Probable).
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. is outcome dependent: +15.9 min (Herro Q) but -7.6 min (Jovic Q).

NOP - Single source, multiple beneficiaries

• Trey Murphy III Q creates a broad minutes cascade: Micah Peavy +15.9 min and Trey Alexander +13.0 min lead the list.
• Secondary bumps include Bryce McGowens +8.9 min and Jordan Hawkins +7.3 min.

BRK - One tag, several viable fillers

• Michael Porter Jr. P pushes Tyson Etienne +13.2 min and Nolan Traore +11.3 min, with Danny Wolf and Jalen Wilson also picking up +9.2 min and +8.9 min.

WAS - One major negative

• Jamir Watkins is the clear loser at -14.7 min if Tristan Vukcevic Q sits.
• Will Riley (+8.7 min) and AJ Johnson (+7.4 min) are the direct minutes beneficiaries.

SAC - Direct replacement style gains

• Zach LaVine Q opens +13.7 min for Nique Clifford and +11.7 min for Maxime Raynaud, with Dylan Cardwell also +8.0 min.

MIL, PHO, OKC - Smaller edges

• Andre Jackson Jr. gains +9.0 min (Gary Harris Q) and +8.5 min (Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable).
• PHO has minor guard shuffles (Collin Gillespie +6.0 min, Jordan Goodwin +5.3 min) while Nigel Hayes-Davis takes -6.2 min.
• OKC shows a single bump: Brooks Barnhizer +7.2 min if Cason Wallace Q sits.

Roster Construction

• If you take the DEN value route with Spencer Jones (+20.0 min) or DaRon Holmes (+19.5 min), use the salary relief to prioritize at least one additional high floor spend while keeping room for late swap if the other DEN Q tag flips.
• In CLE builds, treat Jaylon Tyson (+16.8 min or +15.7 min) as the glue piece, and be more cautious with fringe boosts unless multiple questionable tags break your way.
• Actively limit exposure to the biggest negative minute outcomes in your pool, especially Jamir Watkins (-14.7 min) and Christian Koloko (-14.1 min), unless your lineup story is explicitly built around the opposite news.