NBA DFS Injury Pivots (01/07/26)

Overview

• Volatility is the story tonight, with multiple Q tags creating slate-shaping minute spikes if news breaks your way.
• Denver carries the most extreme rotation outcomes, with several teammates projecting for double-digit minute swings tied to key statuses.
• There are also a few clear negative-minute landmines (around -8.0 min or worse) that can quietly break otherwise solid builds.

Daily Pivots

Key Pivots

Alpha Pivot

Spencer Jones is the top minutes winner on the slate at +20.0 min tied to Christian Braun P. That is the kind of swing that can flip lineup construction from stars-and-scrubs into balanced builds if it becomes real.

Denver also shows multiple paths to Jones getting there (Aaron Gordon at +18.7 min and Jalen Pickett at +16.0 min). In tournaments, this is the type of value that can decide whether you jam a second spend-up or play for mid-range ceiling.

Secondary Pivots

• OKC: If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Q sits, Ousmane Dieng (+17.4 min) and Branden Carlson (+16.9 min) become priority rotation beneficiaries, while Chet Holmgren takes a notable hit (-6.3 min).
• GSW: Draymond Green P creates a direct path to Pat Spencer (+17.4 min) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (+13.5 min), with Jimmy Butler trending down (-5.1 min).
• NOP: Trey Murphy III Q pushes Trey Alexander (+16.6 min) and Micah Peavy (+15.8 min) into legitimate minutes-driven value consideration.
• DET: Cade Cunningham Q spreads minutes to Marcus Sasser (+14.2 min), Chaz Lanier (+14.1 min), and Tolu Smith (+13.7 min), which matters if you need multiple salary savers.

Value Targets

• Spencer Jones (+20.0 min) is the cleanest extreme-minutes value outcome on the slate, but it is also the kind of play that can become obvious chalk if Denver news tightens.
• Ousmane Dieng (+17.4 min) is a strong late-news value lever tied to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Q, fitting better as conditional upside in GPP builds.
• Trey Alexander (+16.6 min) profiles as a slate-relevant saver if Trey Murphy III Q breaks against playing, especially if you are building around higher-priced cores.

Deep Rotation Notes

DEN - multiple knobs, massive swings

• Aaron Gordon P and Christian Braun P both point to Spencer Jones (+18.7 to +20.0 min) and DaRon Holmes (+18.4 min) as primary downstream winners.
• Tim Hardaway Jr. P boosts Julian Strawther (+10.4 min) but also drags Peyton Watson (-10.0 min) and Spencer Jones (-18.0 min), so Denver value can conflict depending on which status matters.

OKC - value opens, one clear loser

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Q creates broad lifts: Kenrich Williams (+15.6 min), Aaron Wiggins (+11.8 min), Jaylin Williams (+10.7 min).
• The negative side is concentrated: Chet Holmgren at -6.3 min.

GSW - center rotation is the key

• Draymond Green P heavily favors Pat Spencer (+17.4 min) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (+13.5 min), with Quinten Post also rising (+10.7 min).
• Gary Payton II Q further boosts Trayce Jackson-Davis (+8.7 min), strengthening the same lane.

DET - overlapping positives with real landmines

• Cade Cunningham Q creates multiple double-digit minute paths for Marcus Sasser (+14.2 min) and Chaz Lanier (+14.1 min).
• If Duncan Robinson P matters to your build, note the downside tags: Daniss Jenkins (-10.2 min) and Wendell Moore Jr. (-8.5 min).

NOP - wings drive the cheap minutes

• Herbert Jones Q spikes Bryce McGowens (+15.1 min) and lifts Yves Missi (+10.6 min).
• Trey Murphy III Q pushes Trey Alexander (+16.6 min) and Micah Peavy (+15.8 min), with smaller help to Jordan Hawkins (+6.3 min).

MEM - big boosts, big cuts

• Ja Morant Q opens Olivier-Maxence Prosper (+14.8 min) and Gregory Jackson II (+13.3 min).
• Jaren Jackson Jr. Q also supports that same value lane, but Jock Landale takes a major hit (-13.9 min).

PHI - McCain swings hard

• MarJon Beauchamp D gives Jared McCain a massive +18.0 min, while Trendon Watford P adds another +8.9 min path.
• Kelly Oubre Jr. P is a warning sign for Kyle Lowry (-8.2 min) and Jared McCain (-8.2 min) in that specific setup.

LAL - straightforward wing minutes

• LeBron James Q boosts Dalton Knecht (+11.3 min) and Bronny James (+6.0 min), making LA value primarily a minutes question.

LAC - bench minutes spike

• James Harden P drives big bench lifts: Kobe Sanders (+16.0 min) and Jordan Miller (+14.9 min), with smaller help to Kris Dunn (+5.8 min).

CHO - guard minutes hinge on one tag

• Brandon Miller Q gives KJ Simpson (+11.2 min) and Antonio Reeves (+9.0 min) the strongest lifts.
• Be aware the KJ Simpson story is sensitive: Moussa Diabate P adds +5.4 min, but Tidjane Salaun P pulls -6.3 min.

ATL - concentrated effects, one clear cut

• Onyeka Okongwu Q boosts Kristaps Porzingis (+8.5 min) and Vit Krejci (+5.6 min), but cuts Asa Newell (-8.1 min) and Zaccharie Risacher (-8.5 min).
• Trae Young Q adds more to Vit Krejci (+7.4 min), reinforcing that specific value lane.

POR - small value cluster

• Kris Murray D lifts Caleb Love (+7.8 min) and adds modest bumps to Rayan Rupert (+5.9 min) and Duop Reath (+5.8 min).

CHI and UTA - single-note bumps

• Coby White Q gives Lachlan Olbrich +6.2 min.
• Ace Bailey Q gives Walter Clayton Jr. +5.0 min.

Roster Construction

• Prioritize conditional builds that can absorb late news: if you land Spencer Jones at +20.0 min, you can comfortably reach a second premium slot elsewhere without forcing thin one-offs.
• In GPPs, treat OKC and NOP as late-swap leverage hubs since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Q and Trey Murphy III Q create multiple +15.0 min style outcomes.
• Actively limit fragile pieces taking -8.0 min or worse (for example Jock Landale at -13.9 min, Peyton Watson at -10.0 min, Daniss Jenkins at -10.2 min) unless you are intentionally playing for a news reversal.