NBA DFS Injury Pivots (01/14/26)

Overview

• Injury volatility is the story, with multiple Questionable tags tied to double digit minute reallocations across TOR, PHI, DAL, and LAC.
• The slate has several true rotation reshuffles where one decision can open multiple value paths, not just a single replacement.
• There are also meaningful minute losers in the same team contexts, creating clean 2v2 leverage options.

Daily Pivots

Key Pivots

Alpha Pivot

Jonathan Mogbo leads the slate at +18.0 min if Sandro Mamukelashvili Q is unavailable. That is the cleanest single-player rotation spike in the data, and it also comes with multiple teammates landing in the +12 to +14 min range, so TOR value can become a core construction decision.

This is also one of the few spots with a clear negative swing (Scottie Barnes at -6.1 min), which matters for building correlated leverage around the same news.

Secondary Pivots

• PHI: Jared McCain at +17.2 min tied to MarJon Beauchamp D is a slate shaping swing. If that condition holds, it is the kind of minutes jump that can force tighter decisions at other positions.
• PHI: Joel Embiid P news still matters because the modeled reallocation is massive for Justin Edwards (+15.4 min) with additional boosts to Adem Bona (+9.7 min) and Eric Gordon (+8.6 min).
• LAC: Ivica Zubac Q creates a clear center reshuffle with Brook Lopez (+12.5 min) and Yanic Niederhauser (+11.7 min), while Bogdan Bogdanovic (-12.3 min) is the direct minute loser in the same branch.
• DAL: P.J. Washington Q consolidates a wide set of +5.1 to +8.7 min boosts (Caleb Martin, Jaden Hardy, Ryan Nembhard, Dwight Powell), making DAL one of the main multi-value decision trees.

Value Targets

• TOR: Jonathan Mogbo (+18.0 min) is the top minutes-based value if Mamukelashvili Q sits, with Jamison Battle (+14.1 min) and A.J. Lawson (+12.5 min) as additional salary relief in the same build path.
• PHI: Jared McCain (+17.2 min) is the most direct salary saver if Beauchamp D is out, and it pairs naturally with other PHI minute gainers if additional news breaks.
• LAC: Brook Lopez (+12.5 min) is the cleanest single pivot if Zubac Q misses, but be aware the same scenario directly pressures Bogdan Bogdanovic (-12.3 min), which can be used for leverage.

Deep Rotation Notes

DAL - Wide minutes fanout

• P.J. Washington Q spreads value across multiple rotation pieces, led by Caleb Martin (+8.7 min) and Jaden Hardy (+8.2 min).
• Brandon Williams Q also lifts Caleb Martin (+8.3 min) and D'Angelo Russell (+7.7 min), reinforcing DAL as a news dependent stack of mid-tier minutes.
• Moussa Cisse is a clear avoid if the Miles Kelly Q branch applies, with a -11.6 min hit.

LAC - Center minutes and one big loser

• If Zubac Q sits, Brook Lopez (+12.5 min) and Yanic Niederhauser (+11.7 min) absorb the bulk of the gain.
• Bogdan Bogdanovic at -12.3 min is the sharpest negative pivot on the team in that scenario.

PHI - Multiple independent levers

• The Beauchamp D branch is the cleanest: Jared McCain (+17.2 min) stands alone as the major benefactor.
• Embiid P related shifts are large, highlighted by Justin Edwards (+15.4 min) and Adem Bona (+9.7 min).
• Paul George P adds another layer, led by Kyle Lowry (+9.4 min), keeping PHI rotations highly sensitive to final tags.

UTA - Balanced boosts with one downgrade

• Markkanen Q spreads minutes up the frontcourt and wing mix, led by Kyle Filipowski (+8.3 min) and Ace Bailey (+7.6 min).
• Jusuf Nurkic (-6.3 min) is the primary negative piece in the same conditional tree.

Roster Construction

• If TOR news opens Jonathan Mogbo at +18.0 min, treat TOR as a primary value source and use that savings to avoid forcing thin negative-minute pieces elsewhere.
• In LAC builds tied to Zubac Q, prioritize the direct minute winners (Brook Lopez +12.5 min) and limit exposure to the clearly impacted loser at -12.3 min.
• DAL and PHI both have multiple overlapping levers, so keep lineup flexibility for late swaps across those teams rather than locking into a single branch too early.