Overview
- Rotation fragility is the headline: multiple teams show double-digit minute swings tied to single tags, which can flip optimal builds late.
- Denver and Detroit carry the largest consolidation paths, while Portland has the widest range of outcomes across several questionable and doubtful situations.
- Several players show both big positive and big negative deltas depending on which teammate sits, so your exposure should follow the exact news path, not just the team.
Daily Pivots
| Team | Injured player | Affected teammate | Minutes +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Dyson Daniels Q | Asa Newell | +11.6 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | -9.4 | ||
| Mouhamed Gueye | -9.9 | ||
| BOS | Payton Pritchard D | Baylor Scheierman | +8.3 |
| CHO | Moussa Diabate Q | KJ Simpson | +5.4 |
| Antonio Reeves | -6.8 | ||
| DAL | Cooper Flagg D | Miles Kelly | +12.9 |
| DAL | Daniel Gafford D | Dwight Powell | +9.0 |
| Dante Exum | +5.8 | ||
| DAL | Max Christie P | Moussa Cisse | +13.2 |
| Jaden Hardy | +9.1 | ||
| Dereck Lively II | +6.5 | ||
| DAL | Miles Kelly Q | Moussa Cisse | -13.7 |
| DEN | Aaron Gordon P | Spencer Jones | +17.7 |
| Peyton Watson | +13.5 | ||
| DaRon Holmes | +12.4 | ||
| Jalen Pickett | +5.5 | ||
| DEN | Bruce Brown P | Julian Strawther | +10.3 |
| Christian Braun | +7.6 | ||
| Peyton Watson | -14.0 | ||
| Spencer Jones | -19.2 | ||
| DEN | Jamal Murray P | Jalen Pickett | +17.2 |
| Peyton Watson | +9.8 | ||
| DaRon Holmes | +7.3 | ||
| Hunter Tyson | +6.7 | ||
| Curtis Jones | +5.5 | ||
| DET | Ausar Thompson P | Chaz Lanier | +14.2 |
| Tolu Smith | +13.7 | ||
| Daniss Jenkins | +12.7 | ||
| Marcus Sasser | +6.8 | ||
| Ronald Holland | +6.1 | ||
| DET | Cade Cunningham P | Daniss Jenkins | +16.4 |
| Chaz Lanier | +14.1 | ||
| Tolu Smith | +13.7 | ||
| Marcus Sasser | +9.9 | ||
| Wendell Moore Jr. | +9.1 | ||
| Ronald Holland | +6.1 | ||
| Ausar Thompson | +6.1 | ||
| Bobi Klintman | +5.1 | ||
| DET | Paul Reed Q | Jaden Ivey | +7.9 |
| Javonte Green | -6.9 | ||
| Chaz Lanier | -8.4 | ||
| LAL | Jaxson Hayes Q | Jarred Vanderbilt | +7.2 |
| Dalton Knecht | +5.4 | ||
| Maxi Kleber | -6.0 | ||
| MIA | Tyler Herro Q | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | +15.5 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | +11.3 | ||
| Simone Fontecchio | +10.7 | ||
| Pelle Larsson | +9.4 | ||
| NYK | Jalen Brunson Q | Miles McBride | +11.9 |
| Jordan Clarkson | +8.7 | ||
| Landry Shamet | +6.8 | ||
| Kevin McCullar Jr. | -5.3 | ||
| PHO | Devin Booker Q | Nigel Hayes-Davis | +8.4 |
| POR | Deni Avdija D | Rayan Rupert | +12.9 |
| Javonte Cooke | +9.7 | ||
| Kris Murray | +7.4 | ||
| Caleb Love | +6.6 | ||
| Scoot Henderson | +5.0 | ||
| Jerami Grant | -7.5 | ||
| Jrue Holiday | -13.6 | ||
| POR | Jerami Grant Q | Caleb Love | +14.3 |
| Javonte Cooke | +9.7 | ||
| Shaedon Sharpe | +5.4 | ||
| Hansen Yang | +5.4 | ||
| POR | Jrue Holiday Q | Caleb Love | +14.1 |
| Sidy Cissoko | +7.1 | ||
| Jerami Grant | +5.2 | ||
| Shaedon Sharpe | +5.1 | ||
| Javonte Cooke | -9.7 |
Legend: If the Injured Player is ruled out, the Affected Teammate is expected to receive the listed +/- minutes.
Key Pivots
Alpha Pivot
Denver is where the slate can break, and the single largest minute swing belongs to Spencer Jones at +17.7 min tied to Aaron Gordon P. That is a massive consolidation signal for a likely low-cost piece if the news lands that way.
The risk is also explicit in the data: Spencer Jones is simultaneously tagged for -19.2 min in the Bruce Brown P scenario. Treat Spencer Jones as a news-dependent click, not a set-and-forget value.
Secondary Pivots
- Detroit’s biggest consolidation is Daniss Jenkins at +16.4 min if Cade Cunningham P sits, with multiple other DET pieces also picking up major run (Chaz Lanier +14.1, Tolu Smith +13.7, Marcus Sasser +9.9).
- Miami’s cleanest minutes bump is Jaime Jaquez Jr. at +15.5 min if Tyler Herro Q is out, with secondary boosts to Kasparas Jakucionis (+11.3) and Simone Fontecchio (+10.7).
- Denver guard rotation leverage: Jalen Pickett jumps +17.2 min if Jamal Murray P sits, and also gains +5.5 min if Aaron Gordon sits.
- Portland volatility hub: Caleb Love spikes +14.3 min if Jerami Grant Q sits and +14.1 min if Jrue Holiday Q sits, while Deni Avdija D creates both adds (Rayan Rupert +12.9) and trims (Jrue Holiday -13.6).
Value Targets
- Spencer Jones (+17.7 min) is elite savings when the Aaron Gordon tag breaks that direction, but he is also the clearest landmine (-19.2 min) if the Denver news path favors the opposite rotation.
- Jalen Pickett (+17.2 min) is the strongest Denver salary-relief piece if Jamal Murray sits, and he stays relevant as a secondary value (+5.5 min) if the minutes open from Aaron Gordon instead.
- Daniss Jenkins (+16.4 min) is the best Detroit minutes-driven value when Cade Cunningham is out, with a separate boost (+12.7 min) in the Ausar Thompson scenario.
Deep Rotation Notes
ATL - Daniels ripple
- Asa Newell gains +11.6 min if Dyson Daniels Q is out.
- Zaccharie Risacher (-9.4 min) and Mouhamed Gueye (-9.9 min) take meaningful hits in the same scenario, creating clear fade candidates if you need cuts.
BOS - Bench consolidation
- Baylor Scheierman picks up +8.3 min if Payton Pritchard D sits.
CHO - Modest value, one clear loser
- KJ Simpson gains +5.4 min if Moussa Diabate Q sits.
- Antonio Reeves drops -6.8 min in that same path.
DAL - Multiple conditional forks
- If Cooper Flagg D sits, Miles Kelly gains +12.9 min.
- If Daniel Gafford D sits, Dwight Powell gains +9.0 min and Dante Exum gains +5.8 min.
- The Moussa Cisse outlook is fragile: +13.2 min tied to Max Christie P, but -13.7 min tied to Miles Kelly Q.
LAL - Frontcourt driven boosts
- Jarred Vanderbilt gains +7.2 min if Jaxson Hayes Q is out, with Dalton Knecht also up +5.4 min.
- Maxi Kleber is the clear negative (-6.0 min) in the same scenario.
NYK - Point guard cascade
- Miles McBride gains +11.9 min if Jalen Brunson Q sits, with Jordan Clarkson also up +8.7 min.
- Kevin McCullar Jr. is the lone negative (-5.3 min) in that rotation change.
PHO - One clear beneficiary
- Nigel Hayes-Davis gains +8.4 min if Devin Booker Q sits.
POR - Highest volatility cluster
- Deni Avdija D opens minutes for Rayan Rupert (+12.9) and Javonte Cooke (+9.7), but also pulls down Jerami Grant (-7.5) and Jrue Holiday (-13.6).
- Jerami Grant Q being out funnels heavily to Caleb Love (+14.3) and adds +9.7 min to Javonte Cooke.
- Jrue Holiday Q being out spikes Caleb Love (+14.1) but cuts Javonte Cooke (-9.7), making Portland a pure news-based rotation tree.
Roster Construction
- If you are building around Denver value, keep it conditional: pair Spencer Jones (+17.7 min) or Jalen Pickett (+17.2 min) with lineups that can late-swap if the other Denver tag breaks the wrong way.
- In cash-style builds, prioritize the cleanest consolidation paths (DET without Cade: Daniss Jenkins +16.4 min; MIA without Herro: Jaime Jaquez Jr. +15.5 min) and trim exposure to the biggest losers (Spencer Jones -19.2 min, Peyton Watson -14.0 min, Moussa Cisse -13.7 min).
- Portland stacks should follow the exact tag combination: Caleb Love is the clearest minutes winner (+14.3, +14.1), but Cooke and Grant can flip from add to cut depending on which player is out.
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