Overview
- Volatility is the edge tonight: multiple Questionable tags create slate-shaping minute redistribution, especially in POR, BOS, CLE, and IND.
- The cleanest stability comes from the single Probable node (CHO), while Q tags create wider ceiling ranges and late swap leverage.
- Several players show large negative minute deltas (down to -16.2 min), making it a slate where avoiding landmines matters as much as finding value.
Daily Pivots
| Team | Injured player | Affected teammate | Minutes +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | Josh Minott Q | Jordan Walsh | -14.6 |
| BOS | Neemias Queta Q | Jordan Walsh | +13.6 |
| Baylor Scheierman | +7.4 | ||
| Amari Williams | +6.4 | ||
| Luka Garza | -5.2 | ||
| Anfernee Simons | -6.1 | ||
| Payton Pritchard | -7.3 | ||
| Hugo Gonzalez | -7.7 | ||
| CHI | Tre Jones D | Kevin Huerter | +6.9 |
| Dalen Terry | +6.1 | ||
| Lachlan Olbrich | -6.2 | ||
| CHO | Collin Sexton P | Tre Mann | +12.7 |
| KJ Simpson | +12.6 | ||
| Liam McNeeley | +6.7 | ||
| Tidjane Salaun | +5.1 | ||
| Antonio Reeves | -6.4 | ||
| Moussa Diabate | -7.6 | ||
| CLE | De'Andre Hunter Q | Chris Livingston | +12.4 |
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | +8.9 | ||
| Dean Wade | +5.9 | ||
| Jaylon Tyson | +5.3 | ||
| CLE | Sam Merrill Q | Jaylon Tyson | +13.2 |
| Luke Travers | +7.0 | ||
| Craig Porter Jr. | +6.8 | ||
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | +6.3 | ||
| IND | Bennedict Mathurin Q | Johnny Furphy | +13.2 |
| Jarace Walker | +8.5 | ||
| Taelon Peter | +7.3 | ||
| Quenton Jackson | +6.5 | ||
| Ethan Thompson | -13.2 | ||
| IND | Quenton Jackson Q | Ethan Thompson | +6.4 |
| Johnny Furphy | -16.2 | ||
| POR | Deni Avdija Q | Rayan Rupert | +14.0 |
| Kris Murray | +7.4 | ||
| Caleb Love | +6.9 | ||
| Scoot Henderson | +5.0 | ||
| Jerami Grant | -7.4 | ||
| Jrue Holiday | -13.0 | ||
| POR | Robert Williams Q | Blake Wesley | +7.8 |
| Duop Reath | +7.4 | ||
| Javonte Cooke | +6.1 |
Legend: If the Injured Player is ruled out, the Affected Teammate is expected to receive the listed +/- minutes.
Key Pivots
Alpha Pivot
Rayan Rupert is the top minutes lever on the slate at +14.0 min if Deni Avdija Q misses. That is the kind of jump that can turn a low usage role into a rosterable value, especially if the field is spread across multiple Q tags.
This is also a strong late swap node because the same situation creates clear fades: Jrue Holiday at -13.0 min and Jerami Grant at -7.4 min are direct opportunity losers in the same branch.
Secondary Pivots
- BOS: Neemias Queta Q drives a clean value ladder, led by Jordan Walsh at +13.6 min and Baylor Scheierman at +7.4 min. Note the conflict risk for Walsh, who also shows -14.6 min tied to Josh Minott Q.
- CLE: Sam Merrill Q is a major accelerator for Jaylon Tyson at +13.2 min, with additional gains for Luke Travers (+7.0 min) and Craig Porter Jr. (+6.8 min).
- IND: Bennedict Mathurin Q boosts Johnny Furphy +13.2 min, but the IND tree is fragile because Quenton Jackson Q separately hits Furphy at -16.2 min. Treat Furphy as strictly conditional value.
- CHO: Collin Sexton P concentrates minutes into Tre Mann (+12.7 min) and KJ Simpson (+12.6 min). Probable tags tend to be more lineup-friendly for cash games builds.
Value Targets
- Rayan Rupert (+14.0 min) is the cleanest minute-based salary saver when Avdija Q sits, and it also creates leverage by pushing you away from the -13.0 min Jrue Holiday branch.
- Tre Mann (+12.7 min) and KJ Simpson (+12.6 min) look like the most stable value path because they are tied to Collin Sexton P, making them easier to trust in tighter builds.
- Jaylon Tyson (+13.2 min via Merrill Q) is a strong GPP value candidate when the CLE news breaks his way, with additional reinforcement from De'Andre Hunter Q also lifting him (+5.3 min).
Deep Rotation Notes
BOS - Conflicting Walsh outcomes
- Jordan Walsh has both +13.6 min (Queta Q) and -14.6 min (Minott Q), so treat BOS value as news-sensitive and avoid locking Walsh without clarity.
- Baylor Scheierman (+7.4 min) and Amari Williams (+6.4 min) are the steadier BOS gainers in the Queta Q branch.
- Payton Pritchard (-7.3 min) and Hugo Gonzalez (-7.7 min) are meaningful minute losers if Queta sits.
CHI - Doubtful creates simple wing minutes
- With Tre Jones D, Kevin Huerter (+6.9 min) and Dalen Terry (+6.1 min) become the primary add-ons.
- Lachlan Olbrich (-6.2 min) is the clear cut from this branch.
CLE - Two Q tags, stacked upside
- Chris Livingston (+12.4 min) is the biggest direct winner if De'Andre Hunter Q sits, with Nae'Qwan Tomlin also gaining (+8.9 min).
- The Merrill Q branch is the bigger needle-mover for Tyson (+13.2 min), making CLE one of the best late swap leverage spots.
IND - High variance tree
- Mathurin Q opens multiple playable minute boosts (Furphy +13.2 min, Walker +8.5 min, Jackson +6.5 min).
- Ethan Thompson swings hard (Mathurin Q: -13.2 min, Jackson Q: +6.4 min), so IND is a spot to keep flexible for swaps.
POR - Strongest value plus clear fades
- Avdija Q creates the slate’s top add (Rupert +14.0 min) plus secondary minutes for Kris Murray (+7.4 min) and Caleb Love (+6.9 min).
- Jrue Holiday (-13.0 min) and Jerami Grant (-7.4 min) are the most actionable POR downgrades in that same outcome.
- Robert Williams Q pushes backup minutes to Blake Wesley (+7.8 min) and Duop Reath (+7.4 min).
Roster Construction
- Prioritize lineups that can absorb late news: POR (Avdija Q), CLE (Hunter Q, Merrill Q), and IND (Mathurin Q, Jackson Q) all create +12.0 to +14.0 min spikes that can decide tournaments.
- Be strict about trimming negative deltas: avoid building around players taking hits like Johnny Furphy (-16.2 min), Jordan Walsh (-14.6 min), Jrue Holiday (-13.0 min), or Ethan Thompson (-13.2 min) when those branches are live.
- In safer builds, lean into the CHO minutes tied to Collin Sexton P with Tre Mann (+12.7 min) and KJ Simpson (+12.6 min) as the cleanest stability node.
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