Overview
- Most of the real minute upside is concentrated in Sacramento and New Orleans, where the largest boosts on the slate show up.
- Every trigger here is tied to a Questionable tag, so late swap flexibility matters more than usual.
- NYK is mostly a negative-minute cluster, while ORL and CHO offer much narrower value pockets.
Daily Pivots
| Team | Injured player | Affected teammate | Minutes +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHO | Pat Connaughton Q | Tre Mann | +8.7 |
| Brandon Miller | +5.3 | ||
| NOP | Dejounte Murray Q | Jordan Hawkins | +14.2 |
| Micah Peavy | +11.0 | ||
| Derik Queen | +8.8 | ||
| Jeremiah Fears | +7.2 | ||
| Bryce McGowens | +5.2 | ||
| NOP | Trey Murphy III Q | Trey Alexander | +17.7 |
| Micah Peavy | +16.1 | ||
| Bryce McGowens | +11.6 | ||
| Karlo Matkovic | +11.0 | ||
| Derik Queen | -6.8 | ||
| Dejounte Murray | -7.2 | ||
| NYK | Dillon Jones Q | Mohamed Diawara | -6.3 |
| NYK | Kevin McCullar Jr. Q | Mohamed Diawara | -8.3 |
| NYK | Trey Jemison Q | Mohamed Diawara | -5.9 |
| Kevin McCullar Jr. | -6.1 | ||
| Ariel Hukporti | -8.0 | ||
| ORL | Jalen Suggs Q | Jase Richardson | +12.5 |
| Anthony Black | +5.7 | ||
| Noah Penda | +5.6 | ||
| SAC | Killian Hayes Q | Keegan Murray | +25.9 |
| Patrick Baldwin Jr. | +16.5 | ||
| DeMar DeRozan | +6.3 | ||
| Dylan Cardwell | +5.6 | ||
| Daeqwon Plowden | -5.8 | ||
| Devin Carter | -6.2 | ||
| Maxime Raynaud | -7.3 | ||
| Doug McDermott | -13.8 | ||
| Nique Clifford | -14.1 | ||
| SAC | Precious Achiuwa Q | Patrick Baldwin Jr. | +16.5 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | +10.5 | ||
| Domantas Sabonis | +7.2 | ||
| Zach LaVine | +5.4 | ||
| DeMar DeRozan | -5.3 | ||
| Dylan Cardwell | -6.7 |
Legend: If the Injured Player is ruled out, the Affected Teammate is expected to receive the listed +/- minutes.
Key Pivots
Alpha Pivot
Keegan Murray owns the biggest positive swing on the slate at +25.9 min if Killian Hayes Q sits. Nothing else in this pool is close, which makes this the cleanest raw-minutes reaction available.
That same SAC branch also pushes Patrick Baldwin Jr. to +16.5 min and DeMar DeRozan to +6.3 min while knocking several teammates down. If Hayes is ruled out, Murray becomes the first place to start for builds that want the strongest minutes signal.
Secondary Pivots
- Trey Alexander gets +17.7 min if Trey Murphy III Q is out. That is the biggest NOP jump and one of the strongest single-news value openings on the slate.
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. is up +16.5 min in two separate SAC scenarios, one tied to Killian Hayes Q and one tied to Precious Achiuwa Q. Two independent paths to the same gain matter.
- Jordan Hawkins (+14.2 min) and Micah Peavy (+11.0 min) both benefit if Dejounte Murray Q sits. Peavy also jumps +16.1 min if Murphy is out, giving him multiple ways to matter.
- Jase Richardson rises +12.5 min off Jalen Suggs Q. That is a much stronger ORL spike than the +5.7 min for Anthony Black or the +5.6 min for Noah Penda.
Value Targets
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. is the cleanest minutes-based value target because he lands at +16.5 min in two different SAC branches. He fits both straightforward chalk builds and safer constructions.
- Trey Alexander at +17.7 min and Jase Richardson at +12.5 min are the clearest direct replacements when their specific news breaks. Those are the easier paths for chalky value.
- Micah Peavy works better as a leverage-style value angle. He gains +11.0 min with Dejounte Murray Q out and +16.1 min with Trey Murphy III Q out, so he is not tied to only one outcome.
Deep Rotation Notes
CHO - Narrow wing boost
- Tre Mann gains +8.7 min if Pat Connaughton Q sits.
- Brandon Miller also gets +5.3 min, but this is a smaller two-player redistribution than the bigger SAC and NOP spots.
ORL - Secondary spillover
- Anthony Black (+5.7 min) and Noah Penda (+5.6 min) do benefit if Jalen Suggs Q sits.
- Jase Richardson is still the clear priority because his +12.5 min spike separates from the rest of the ORL group.
NYK - Mostly avoid
- Mohamed Diawara loses minutes in three different branches: -6.3 min, -8.3 min, and -5.9 min.
- Kevin McCullar Jr. (-6.1 min) and Ariel Hukporti (-8.0 min) also take meaningful hits off the Trey Jemison Q scenario.
- From this data alone, NYK is a weak source of value.
NOP - Wide tree with mixed outcomes
- Bryce McGowens gains +5.2 min if Dejounte Murray Q sits and +11.6 min if Trey Murphy III Q sits.
- Derik Queen is news-sensitive in both directions, up +8.8 min in the Dejounte branch but down -6.8 min in the Murphy branch.
- Karlo Matkovic gets +11.0 min off the Murphy news, while Dejounte Murray himself shows -7.2 min in that same branch.
SAC - Clear winners and clear losers
- Doug McDermott (-13.8 min) and Nique Clifford (-14.1 min) are the biggest losers if Killian Hayes Q sits.
- Daeqwon Plowden is split, dropping -5.8 min in the Hayes branch but rising +10.5 min in the Precious Achiuwa Q branch.
- DeMar DeRozan is also split, up +6.3 min with Hayes out but down -5.3 min with Achiuwa out.
Roster Construction
- If SAC news opens, start with Keegan Murray at +25.9 min or Patrick Baldwin Jr. at +16.5 min before chasing thinner secondary shifts.
- Keep late-swap flexibility for NOP. Jordan Hawkins (+14.2 min), Trey Alexander (+17.7 min), and Micah Peavy (+11.0 min or +16.1 min) depend on separate Questionable tags.
- In safer builds, cut back on players carrying -8.0 min or worse, especially Doug McDermott (-13.8 min), Nique Clifford (-14.1 min), Ariel Hukporti (-8.0 min), and Mohamed Diawara (-8.3 min).
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