NBA DFS Injury Pivots (12/31/25)

Overview

• The rotation simulations are extremely top-heavy tonight, with multiple bench pieces picking up massive +15 to +22 min swings.
• Several teams have stacked tags that can flip entire position groups, so late swap discipline matters more than usual.
• There are also real landmines (multiple players at -9 to -11 min) that can quietly kill otherwise sharp builds.

Daily Pivots

Key Pivots

Alpha Pivot

AJ Johnson is the slate’s cleanest minutes spike at +22.1 min if Malaki Branham Q is out. That is the kind of swing that can force value into optimal builds on both sites, especially if you need salary to pay for high-end raw points elsewhere.

This also concentrates the WAS follow-ons: Bilal Coulibaly (+6.5 min) and Jamir Watkins (+5.2 min) gain enough runway to matter as secondary pieces if you are building for correlated rotation outcomes.

Secondary Pivots

• IND: If Ben Sheppard Q sits, Ethan Thompson jumps +21.1 min and Johnny Furphy gains +10.1 min. Separate from that, T.J. McConnell P being in pushes Furphy +12.7 min and lifts multiple IND rotation pieces (Jarace Walker +10.8 min, Quenton Jackson +9.4 min).
• CLE: De'Andre Hunter Q creates a true ceiling minutes outcome for Nae'Qwan Tomlin (+19.1 min) plus Chris Livingston (+12.4 min). Sam Merrill P also adds strong minutes to Jaylon Tyson (+16.5 min) and Craig Porter Jr. (+11.1 min), so this team is a priority for late swap awareness.
• ORL: Jalen Suggs Q is the positive engine for Jase Richardson (+14.2 min) while multiple other tags pull minutes away from Anthony Black (-9.4 min with Desmond Bane Q, and -5.6 min with Jett Howard Q) and Tristan Da Silva (-10.6 min with Bane Q).
• CHO: The KJ Simpson outcomes are volatile with conflicting pulls: -7.2 min if Miles Bridges D is out, but +10.1 min tied to Pat Connaughton P. Treat this as a spot where your build should reflect which news path you are actually betting on.

Value Targets

• AJ Johnson (+22.1 min) and Ethan Thompson (+21.1 min) are the top pure minutes value levers, best suited to chalkier builds when their corresponding Q tags break their way.
• Nae'Qwan Tomlin (+19.1 min) and Jaylon Tyson (+16.5 min) bring strong minute-based ceilings, but they are more slate-sensitive because CLE has multiple moving parts.
• ORL value is more fragile: Jase Richardson (+14.2 min) is the cleanest beneficiary, while Anthony Black (-9.4 min) and Tristan Da Silva (-10.6 min) profile as leverage fades when those negative paths are live.

Deep Rotation Notes

ATL - Secondary minutes swing

• If Trae Young Q is out, Vit Krejci gains +7.1 min as the clearest rotation winner.
• Caleb Houstan Q nudges Asa Newell up +6.1 min while pulling Mouhamed Gueye down -7.1 min.

DEN - One clear beneficiary

• Julian Strawther P points to Spencer Jones at +16.2 min, a direct minutes-driven value signal.

NYK - Small but usable

• Ariel Hukporti Q boosts Tyler Kolek by +5.8 min, more of a last-piece or site-specific fit than a core.

PHO - Thin, focused adds

• With Grayson Allen D, Collin Gillespie (+6.3 min) and Jordan Goodwin (+6.1 min) gain rotation stability.
• Nigel Hayes-Davis moves the other way at -5.2 min, making him a spot to trim in builds chasing certainty.

POR - Quiet value stack

• Kris Murray Q opens minutes for Caleb Love (+9.2 min) and Rayan Rupert (+6.5 min), with Duop Reath also up +5.8 min.

Roster Construction

• If you are jamming the biggest minutes value, start with AJ Johnson (+22.1 min) or Ethan Thompson (+21.1 min) and keep the rest of the build flexible for late swap around CLE and ORL tags.
• In lineups that assume ORL negative paths, limit exposure to Tristan Da Silva (-10.6 min) and Anthony Black (-9.4 min) and use Jase Richardson (+14.2 min) as the cleaner minutes-based pivot.
• When playing CHO, avoid mixing conflicting assumptions: KJ Simpson has both +10.1 min and -7.2 min outcomes on the board, so make the build tell one story.